Rep. Mike Lawler won’t run for governor in New York as Elise Stefanik’s decision looms
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., is skipping a bid for governor and will instead run for re-election after President Donald Trump urged him to do just that, giving Republicans a battle-tested incumbent in one of the most competitive House races in the country — and clearing the way for one of Lawler’s House colleagues to run for governor if she so chooses.
Lawler made his announcement Wednesday morning in an interview with The New York Times and an appearance on Fox News, noting that “keeping the House majority is critical” and that his seat has been “determinative of control of the House” during recent elections.
“I’m proud to run for re-election on my record and win next November and keep the House Republican majority,” he said.
In a post on social media, he added that he’s skipping a gubernatorial bid despite the fact that “I fundamentally believe I am best positioned to take on” Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Republicans are protecting a narrow House majority in the 2026 midterms. Democrats would need to a net gain of just three seats to flip the chamber, and Lawler represents one of the three House Republican districts carried by then-Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in the 2024 election.
New York Republicans have been encouraged by their recent performance in statewide elections — Trump improved his vote share from 38% in 2020 to 43% in 2024, and Republican Lee Zeldin lost to Hochul by about 6 percentage points in the 2022 governor’s race. It was the Republican Party’ best performance in 20 years.
But Democrats haven’t lost a gubernatorial race since 2002, and the party is already gearing up to use Trump and the House GOP’s legislative agenda against Republicans next fall.
Lawler had been openly considering a gubernatorial bid for some time, but Trump endorsed him for re-election in May, before the congressman made his announcement.
That endorsement came weeks after reporting that Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a Trump ally who had been tapped to become his United Nations ambassador before that nomination was pulled amid concerns about the slim GOP majority in the House, was weighing a gubernatorial bid of her own.
Stefanik responded to Lawler’s decision by praising the congressman’s commitment to “protecting the House Republican majority,” adding she’d announce her plans after the fall elections. Stefanik started a political action committee last month aimed at supporting “Republican candidates across New York in 2025, and laying the groundwork to save New York by firing Kathy Hochul in 2026.“
Hochul is running for re-election and faces a primary challenge from her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado. Addressing Lawler’s decision not to run on social media, Hochul criticized Lawler for having “caved to Trump” by supporting the GOP’s major tax cut and spending bill, and posting a photo of a box of dog bones, calling Lawler “Donald Trump’s Good Boy.”
Lawler’s decision helps House Republicans defend their narrow majority next year, as they’ll be able to rally behind the incumbent in a difficult district that Harris narrowly won in 2024. But Lawler is expected to face significant competition as Democrats look to win back control of the House.
