The sprint to Election Day begins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races

The year’s lone pair of gubernatorial elections are only two months away, providing one of the biggest tests for both parties since the 2024 presidential contest.

In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are locked in a competitive race that has been defined by affordability issues and the popularity of President Donald Trump and Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has seen success in polls by blasting Republican Winsome Earle-Sears over Trump’s massive tax cut and spending law and putting economic issues at the forefront of her message. But Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, seems to have made up ground over the summer, with early voting kicking off in just over two weeks.

Both races promise to examine what messages might work or fail ahead of next year’s midterm elections — and whether Democrats can bank on enthusiasm centered on opposition to Trump.

“I think we’re going to learn whether or not Democrats have the energy that they did in 2017. We saw big victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017, and that portended very big victories in 2018,” said New Jersey Democratic strategist Dan Bryan.

The races will also test whether other Republicans can replicate, and build on, Trump’s gains last year, when he improved on his 2020 margins in every state.

Mike DuHaime, a longtime New Jersey GOP strategist and former Republican National Committee political director, noted that Trump’s popularity wasn’t transferable to other Republican candidates during his first term.

“Will that change now? We’ll see,” DuHaime said.

Garden State showdown

Even though New Jersey has traditionally been a more Democratic-leaning state than Virginia, some Republicans are feeling more confident about their chances in the Garden State.

“Republicans are probably more optimistic in New Jersey than they are in Virginia,” said DuHaime, adding that it’s the party’s “best shot since 2009,” when Chris Christie won his first gubernatorial race.

That’s in part because New Jersey had one of the largest swings toward Trump in 2024, and Republicans believe voters are eager for change after Murphy’s two terms. And they believe the GOP has a battle-tested candidate in Ciattarelli.

A former state assemblyman, Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by 3 points in a surprisingly close race four years ago, and this time the campaign is seeing a boost in resources. While the candidates have not filed fundraising reports since the June primary, both Ciattarelli and Sherrill have each received more than $5 million in public matching funds, suggesting that they are raising similar amounts of money.

Ciattarelli has signaled that he plans to tie Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman, to the incumbent governor, casting her as “Phil Murphy 2.0” after he won the GOP primary.

“Jack Ciattarelli is running with a plan to make New Jersey more affordable and safe for working families and seniors, and shake up the failed status quo in Trenton,” Ciattarelli campaign strategist Chris Russell said in a statement, adding that Sherrill supported former President Joe Biden’s policies and calling her “the handpicked candidate of Phil Murphy and Trenton Democrats who have created the mess in our state.”

“For voters who want real change in New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli is the only choice,” Russell said.

Sherrill has stressed her background as a Navy helicopter pilot and argued that she is a fighter who has been willing to buck her own party.

First elected to the House after flipping a longtime Republican seat in 2018, Sherrill was one of the first members of Congress to call on Joe Biden to step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee after his disastrous debate performance last year.

Sherrill also recently sparred with Murphy over the state’s surging electricity bills, as New Jersey’s high cost of living remains the top issue for voters, according to recent polling and New Jersey political operatives. She pledged to freeze utility rates for one year, which Murphy doubted was possible. Sherrill responded by writing in an X post that she was “tired” of doubts, pledging, “I’m going to get it done for NJ families.”

Meanwhile, Democrats will try to link Ciattarelli to Trump, who made inroads in New Jersey last year but still lost it by 250,000 votes, or 6 percentage points.

“Mikie Sherrill is seizing on the most pressing issues to New Jerseyans and owning the campaign dialogue as she takes her message to voters everywhere,” Sherrill campaign spokesman Sean Higgins said in a statement, pointing to Sherrill’s proposals to combat high utility costs.

“The core difference in this race is that Mikie Sherrill will take on anyone — from Trump to her own party — to deliver for New Jersey, where Jack Ciattarelli only answers to Trump,” Higgins said.

New Jersey Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky said Trump “has thrown this race wide open,” noting it has historically been difficult for a candidate to succeed a two-term incumbent of the same party.

“So the question is: Who do voters blame for their affordability issues and their cost of living? Is it Phil Murphy and the Democratic Party, or is it Donald Trump and the Republicans?” Roginsky said.

Democrats are betting that voters will ultimately reject Trump and his policies, which Ciattarelli has embraced, like sweeping tariffs and Trump’s sprawling domestic policy law known as the “big, beautiful bill.”

Ciattarelli aligned himself with Trump and earned the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary, where he cruised to victory. While Ciattarelli has broadly supported Trump’s agenda, he recently opposed the administration’s plan to house immigrant detainees at a New Jersey military base.

Ciattarelli has a tricky balancing act when it comes to Trump: He needs to consolidate Republicans and turn out the president’s supporters, but also win over independent voters and some Democrats.

For her part, Sherrill is working to energize her party following a divisive June primary in which she defeated five other candidates. Democrats noted that the party has to prioritize turning out voters of color, including those who backed other primary contenders like Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who was vying to be the state’s first Black governor.

“You’ve got to be concerned, because Black voters in New Jersey make up the backbone of the Democratic Party,” said Bryan, the Democratic strategist, adding that Sherrill has “spent a ton of time in those communities.” Bryan also noted that Sherrill named Dale Caldwell, a Black pastor, as her running mate, while Ciattarelli tapped Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon.

While both Sherrill and Ciattarelli have been crisscrossing the state this summer, they have yet to spend significant resources on ads in the pricey New York City and Philadelphia media markets. But that’s expected to change after Labor Day, with candidates and outside groups gearing up to spend millions to make their cases to Garden State voters.

Tightening race in Virginia

In Virginia, Republicans say they feel far more optimistic about Earle-Sears’ odds than they did even a few weeks ago.

After months of facing criticism from Republicans — both privately and publicly — for running an undisciplined campaign, Earle-Sears shook up her team over the summer and began focusing more on a message highlighting “common sense” issues.

She has also leaned even harder into tying herself to term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who remains popular in the state. Her latest TV ad, a 30-second spot released last week, features Youngkin praising his No. 2 over their record on the economy and education.

And earlier this month, a poll showed Earle-Sears cutting into the substantial lead that Spanberger, a former congresswoman, had held in earlier surveys.

That Roanoke College poll of likely voters showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 46% to 39%, with 14% undecided. Spanberger’s lead is inside the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

It’s a noteworthy change from polls in July and May, which showed Spanberger with larger leads outside the margin of error.

Early voting in Virginia kicks off on Sept. 19, leading some Republicans to believe that voters are starting to pay attention to the race at the right time for her.

“The race is shifting. Attention is zeroing in on it,” said a Republican operative in the state who is not working with the campaign.

But the operative cautioned that the race remains “definitely uphill” for Earle-Sears.

“It’s still an incredibly difficult place to win,” added the operative, who was granted anonymity to offer a candid assessment of the race. “But it’s encouraging to see there finally be a little bit of shift in momentum to our side.”

So far, Democrats have largely bet on tying Earle-Sears closely to Trump and policies they say have had a negative impact on Virginia. Most recently, that includes Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” — and the dramatic changes it’s making to Medicaid and food assistance programs — with Democrats highlighting what they say are her dismissals over concerns about the cuts.

Spanberger’s campaign recently released a new ad dubbing Earle-Sears a “MAGA Republican” and spotlighting her praise for the bill.

The Earle-Sears campaign and Republican groups have centered their message on the Virginia economy under the Youngkin administration, and have criticized Spanberger over not taking a clear stance on trans issues, specifically in youth sports.

But plenty of important developments in the race have yet to unfold. The two will meet on Oct. 9 for what is currently their only scheduled debate.

And still looming over both campaigns is the question of whether Trump will endorse Earle-Sears.

Trump last month offered tepid support to Earle-Sears when asked if he’d endorse her, saying only that “I would, yeah.” But he has yet to offer a formal endorsement. A White House spokesperson didn’t respond to questions about a possible formal endorsement.

“He’s still the most important endorsement in Republican politics. You need his coalition to win,” said Virginia-based Republican strategist Zack Roday, who is not working with the Earle-Sears campaign. Roday and others noted that Trump made significant strides in Virginia in 2024, cutting his margin of defeat there nearly in half from 2020.

Spanberger’s campaign and her Democratic allies maintain that their focus on affordability and safety is the superior message.

“Overall, Abigail Spanberger certainly has the momentum, but we can’t take anything for granted and the stakes are really high,” Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Sam Newton said.

Two recent factors are bolstering many Democrats’ confidence. Spanberger has outspent her opponent on ads almost 2 to 1 from Jan 1. through Labor Day, according to AdImpact.

And last month she earned the endorsement of the largest police union in the state. It comes as Republicans continue to highlight crime as a major problem — a message underscored by Trump’s decision to send National Guard troops into the nation’s capital last month.

But the Virginia Police Benevolent Association’s endorsement of Spanberger, a former CIA officer, is particularly notable because it also endorsed the Republican candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general on the ballot this November, and it had previously endorsed Earle-Sears when she ran for lieutenant governor in 2021.

“Abigail has a deep, expert-level knowledge of the unique challenges facing Virginia’s law enforcement officers, and she is a leader who shares our goal of building trust across our communities and working towards a safer, stronger Commonwealth,” Joe Woloszyn, the group’s president, said in a statement.